DETERMINANTS OF CREDIT GROWTH IN BANKING SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Autori članka: 
Dragan Jović, Miodrag Jandrić
Godina izdavanja članka: 
2016
Broj u godini: 
2
Apstrak članka: 
 
DETERMINANTS OF CREDIT GROWTH IN BANKING SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Apstract: Credit growth is function of several variables, which are from the domestic banks point of view internal and external. NPL and deposits, on bank level, nominal GDP growth, and inflation have biggest impact on credit growth. Credit growth is under direct and strong influence of global crises and of ECB monetary policy, and these variables influence is with time lag. Between factors which also influence credit growth, but which influence is not so statistically significant, like previous factors, distinguish themselves capitalization ratio and return on asset on banking sector level. Possibility of doing banking business without deposit insurance, putting limits on deposit rates and on deposit growth could contribute to decrease in banks deposit variability, and to smoothness in credit growth path, as well as insisting on capital ratio rising. If domestic economic policy want to manage credit growth in domestic banking sector it is necessary to increase quality of prudential regulation, to improve NPL management and credit risk management and to modify monetary regime, by granting permission to domestic central bank to provide credits to residents. Without providing credit to residents by Central bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is not possible to achieve price stability and it is not possible to decrease deflationary pressure. Increase in capital ratio has positive impact on credit growth, and vice versa, and that is way increase in capitalization must object of permanent supervision. Since activity and profitability of systematically important banks are one of credit growth generator, banking supervision has to have particular strategy for big banks resolution. Low influence of previous credit growth on current credit growth is motive for active countercyclical economic policy. 
Key words: credit growth, banking supervison, banking sector regulation, economic policy, panel analysis. 
 
DETERMINANTE KREDITNOG RASTA U BANKARSKOM SEKTORU BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE
Sažetak: Kreditni rast je u funkciji više varijabli, koje su sa aspekta bosanskohercegovačkih banka internog i eksternog karaktera. Najveći uticaj na kreditni rast imaju loši krediti i depoziti u bankama, stopa rasta nominalnog BDP i inflacija. Kreditni rast je i pod direktnim i jakim uticajem globalne krize i monetarne politike Evropske centralne banke (European Central Bank), sa tim da ove varijable djeluju sa vremenskim pomakom. Među faktorima koji takođe utiču na kreditni rast, ali čiji uticaj nije tako statistički signifikantan kao prethodnih faktora, izdvajaju se stopa kapitalizacije banaka i povrat na aktivu, ali na nivou cijelog bankarskog sektora. Mogućnost obavljanja bankarskih poslova bez osiguranja depozita, limitiranje pasivnih kamatnih stopa i limitiranje rasta depozitnog potencijala, bi moglo doprinijeti smanjenju varijabiliteta depozitnog potencijala banaka i izravnavanju putanje kreditnog rasta, kao i insistiranje na rastu stope kapitalizacije banaka. Ukoliko be-ha ekonomska politika želi upravljati sa kreditnim rastom u BSBH neophodno je povećati kvalitet prudencione regulacije, poboljšati upravljanje lošim kreditima i kreditnim rizicima, i modifikovati monetarni režim, u smislu davanja prava be-ha emisionoj banci da kreditira rezidentne sektore. Bez kreditiranja rezidentnih sektora od strane Centralne banke Bosne i Hercegovine nije moguće postići stabilnost cijena, a niti smanjiti deflacione pritiske. Rast stope kapitalizacije banke pozitivno utiče na rast kreditne aktivnosti banaka i obratno, te zato rast kapitalne osnove mora biti predmet stalnog nadzora. Pošto su aktivnosti i profitabilnost sistemski bitnih banaka jedan od generatora kreditnog rasta, bankarska supervizija mora imati posebnu strategiju za sanaciju velikih banaka. Nizak uticaj prethodnog kreditnog rasta na tekući kreditni rast, je motiv za aktivni anticikličnu ekonomsku politiku. 
Ključne riječi: kreditni rast, bankarska supervizija, regulacija bankarskog sektora, ekonomska politika, panel analiza.