Article author:
Jelena Bojić, Mirjana Landika
Full article:
Year the article was released:
2016
Edition in this Year:
2
Article abstract:
MODELLING OF BUSINESS-ECONOMIC STRATEGIES AS A PLATFORM OF INVESTMENT POLICY IN THE RISK EXPOSURE
Abstract: Investment policy and investing represent essential tasks, and also major issues of almost all socio-economic systems. Investing stands for a development platform and is necessary for survival of market and economic systems; it comprises undertaking appropriate measures and activities to have the invested capital continuously increased through exercising selected operations.
Economic indicators, especially in the period of economic crisis, reflect unfavourable and widespread tendencies of unwanted business result that arise from inadequate business policy, where investing and investment policy may be marked as leaders in the area of business failure.
Impossibility to accurately assume business results related to the investment, time disproportion between the investment and its initial, and particularly, optimal effects, and also irreversibility of the investment, further complicate the formulation of adequate investment policy strategy platform. Modelling of business strategies in the exposure to turbulent socio-economic, technological and market factors is an inspiration and a challenge to the researcher to representatively copy the reality by selecting adequate theoretical model. Faithful mirroring of the reality involves a subtle approach to classification of these factors by importance, level of influence, and also adequate quantifying, identifying and shaping the form, as well as the extent of their interdependence. Mathematical simulation model is a theoretical model that allows prediction of business results in the risk exposure expressed correspondently with the random component that is influencing it.The major concern of the mentioned approach is an adequate selection of the probability distribution of a random variable, customized to the investment conditions. It is necessary hereto take into account empiric component of territorial-geographic area of the investment implementation, whereby it is necessary to have insight into other aspects of distribution selection, such as experiences in the selected investment area (sectoral specificity) and adjustment to particular theoretical model. Simulation of investment effects provides objective approach to strategic choice and adequate calculation of monetary results before operationalization of the project.
Key words: investment policy, business environment, irreversibility of investment, calculation of operating expense, investment effectiveness
MODELIRANJE POSLOVNO – EKONOMSKIH STRATEGIJA KAO PLATFORME INVESTICIONE POLITIKE U USLOVIMA RIZIKA
Rezime: Investiciona politika i investiranje predstavlja esencijalne zadatke, ali istovremeno i probleme gotovo svih društveno – ekonomskih sistema. Investiranje predstavlja platformu razvoja i neophodnost opstanka tržišno – ekonomskih sistema, a podrazumijeva preduzimanje adekvatnih mjera i aktivnosti kako bi se uloženi kapital, putem odabrane djelatnosti permanentno uvećavao.
Ekonomski pokazatelji, posebno u periodu ekonomske krize, oslikavaju nepovoljne i opšteprisutne tendencije neželjenog poslovnog rezultata proizilaze iz neadekvatne politike poslovanja, pri čemu investiranje i investicionu politiku možemo označiti liderima u oblasti poslovnih neuspjeha.
Nemogućnost preciznog predviđanja poslovnih ishoda vezanih za investiciona ulaganja, vremenska disproporcija između ulaganja i njihovih početnih, a posebno optimalnih efekata, kao i ireverzibilnost uloženih sredstava, dodatno otežavaju formulaciju adekvatne strategijske platforme investicione politike.Modeliranje poslovnih strategija u uslovima turbulentnih društveno – ekonomskih, tehnoloških, kao i tržišnih faktora predstavlja inspiraciju i izazov istraživaču da izborom adekvatnog teorijskog modela reprezentativno prekopira realnost. Vjerno preslikavanje realnosti podrazumjeva suptilan pristup klasifikaciji navedenih faktora prema važnosti, nivou uticaja, kao i adekvatnu kvantifikaciju, prepoznavanje i uobličavanje oblika i mjere njihove međuzavisnosti. Model matematičke simulacije predstavlja teorijski model koji omogućava predikciju poslovnih ishoda u uslovima rizika uz njihovo iskazivanje korespodentno sa slučajnom komponentom koja na njih utiče. Ključno pitanje navedenog pristupa odnosi se na adekvatan izbor distribucije vjerovatnoće slučajne promjenljive, prilagođene uslovima investiranja pri čemu je potrebno uvažiti i empirijsku komponentu teritorijalno – geografskog prostora na kojem se investicija realizuje, a pri tome imati uvid i u druge aspekte izbora distribucije, kao što su iskustva u području odabranog područja investiranja (granske specifičnosti) i prilagođenost određenom teorijskom modelu. Simuliranje efekata investicionih ulaganja obezbjeđuje objektivan pristup strategijskom izboru i adekvatan proračun monetarnih posljedica prije operacionalizacije projekta.
Ključne riječi:investiciona politika,poslovno okruženje, ireverzibiolnost uloženih sredstava, proračun poslovnih ishoda, efiikasnost ulaganja