Article author:
Selma Vidimlić
Full article:
Doi:
Year the article was released:
2025
Edition in this Year:
1
Article abstract:
PHILLIPS CURVE AND OKUN’S LAW IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES WITH MODERATE AND INCREASED INFLATION
Abstract:In this research, the economic growth of individual national economies, price
stability and the level of unemployment in transition countries were observed, using
data from the official institutions of three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Croatia and Republic of Serbia), before and after the sudden general increase
in prices from 2021. and now, for the period 2015-2024, with the aim of searching for
clear causalities between them. Fundamental research conducted in the world during
the 60s of the last century, which resulted in the creation of macroeconomic postulates
such as the Phillips curve and Okun’s law, are subject to review - considering the many
global changes that occurred after them. Using data from official state institutions,
methods of statistical data processing in the SPSS package, methods of analysis and
synthesis, induction and deduction, and the general method of cognition, it was observed that the Phillips curve obtained for each of the mentioned national economy
does not show the existence of dependence of variables, and Okun’s law did not show
credibility. Greater causalities can be observed in more economically developed countries within the framework of transition countries, in this research in the Republic of
Croatia. Also, the strong influence of external factors on national economies has weakened the management capabilities of states through monetary and fiscal measures.
stability and the level of unemployment in transition countries were observed, using
data from the official institutions of three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Croatia and Republic of Serbia), before and after the sudden general increase
in prices from 2021. and now, for the period 2015-2024, with the aim of searching for
clear causalities between them. Fundamental research conducted in the world during
the 60s of the last century, which resulted in the creation of macroeconomic postulates
such as the Phillips curve and Okun’s law, are subject to review - considering the many
global changes that occurred after them. Using data from official state institutions,
methods of statistical data processing in the SPSS package, methods of analysis and
synthesis, induction and deduction, and the general method of cognition, it was observed that the Phillips curve obtained for each of the mentioned national economy
does not show the existence of dependence of variables, and Okun’s law did not show
credibility. Greater causalities can be observed in more economically developed countries within the framework of transition countries, in this research in the Republic of
Croatia. Also, the strong influence of external factors on national economies has weakened the management capabilities of states through monetary and fiscal measures.
Keywords: economic growth, Phillips curve, Okun’s law, transition countries